A new report analyzing data from the past two decades has estimated that one in three Americans born in the year 2000 will develop diabetes, making the risk of developing the disease nearly as high as that of heart disease.

Increased 40% in nine years
The report, published in a recent issue of the Journal of the American Medical Association, was produced by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The report cites the prevalence of diabetes among US adults has increased by 40% in 10 years—from 4.9% in 1990 to 6.9% in 1999. It is estimated that the number will rise by 165% between 2000 and 2050, with most of the increase occurring in older adults and ethnic minorities.

Diabetes can lead to kidney failure, gangrene and amputation, blindness or stroke. Researchers say the staggering worldwide increase of incidence for the disease is largely due to a rise in obesity—a major risk factor for the disease. For instance, it is estimated that there are over one million people in Great Britain with type 2 diabetes, and that 80% of them are overweight or obese.

Women at higher risk
The researchers analyzed data from the National Health Interview Survey (1984-2000) to estimate the overall risk of diabetes linked to age, gender and ethnic background for people born in 2000.

Scientists also used US Census data and information from a previous study of diabetes to estimate how the disease would affect individuals—including age at diagnosis, how many years subjects would have diabetes and how many years of life could be lost because of it.

The results showed that the risk of developing diabetes for people born in 2000 was 38.5% for women and 32.8% for men. Women had a higher lifetime risk for diabetes at all ages. The report estimates that a man diagnosed with diabetes at the age of 40 would lose 11.6 years of life, and a woman 14.3 years.

Reference:

1. K. M. V. Narayan; et al., “Lifetime Risk for Diabetes Mellitus in the United States,” Journal of the American Medical Association, 2003; 290: 1884-1890.